Verdict 避坑指数 v1 内部评审版·未公开

基于 153 个财经账号公开发言的可测行为特征(清洗后账本,2026-08-16)。分数高=言论风格接近账本中历史平均不靠谱群体的特征:爱说满口把握(实测:自称高把握者兑现率反而更低)、永远看多、表态模糊、不给期限。

数据统计,非投资建议,不构成对任何个人的定性。行为特征存在假阳性——分数高不代表一定不准,请结合硬结算edge自行判断。数据与算法可复算:CSV · 复算脚本 · 口径
晨审待拍板: ①是否公开 ②公开版是否将账号匿名化(如"雪球账号#a3f2")以符合"负面不点名"原则(研究报告014/081)

#	账号	避坑分	高把握%	永远看多%	模糊%	无期限%	预测数	硬结算	edge
1	pete_rizzo_	91.4	100.0	100.0	57.1	100.0	18	—
2	Defi_Rocketeer	90.3	90.0	90.0	81.5	100.0	10	2	0.5
3	bitcoinlfgo	89.8	94.1	100.0	63.8	94.1	17	—
4	DeFiMidas	87.0	88.2	88.2	70.2	100.0	17	—
5	Bitcoinhabebe	85.8	89.5	94.7	52.5	100.0	19	6	0.167
6	CryptoMichNL	85.4	75.0	100.0	64.4	100.0	16	2	0.0
7	MrMikeInvesting	82.3	96.7	98.4	18.7	100.0	61	4	0.0
8	5818707659	82.1	72.7	97.0	56.0	100.0	33	4	0.0
9	laofeiyyds	81.8	88.2	76.5	62.2	100.0	17	12	0.083
10	TheLioncom	81.3	93.3	100.0	16.7	100.0	30	—
11	Web3news_Org	79.9	78.6	100.0	31.7	100.0	28	23	0.0
12	4289770541	79.5	68.8	87.5	62.8	100.0	16	1	0.0
13	KookCapitalLLC	78.6	81.0	94.4	30.0	100.0	21	14	0.0
14	AltcoinPsycho	78.3	64.3	84.6	68.2	100.0	14	10	0.1
15	RipBullWinkle	78.0	73.7	82.4	61.2	94.7	19	14	0.0
16	VIPTrades009	77.0	75.0	100.0	22.6	100.0	24	6	0.0
17	AltcoinSherpa	76.8	45.5	90.9	79.2	100.0	11	9	0.0
18	CryptoHayes	76.6	60.9	91.3	54.9	100.0	23	16	0.0
19	100trillionUSD	76.6	64.7	82.4	62.2	100.0	17	3	0.0
20	peloswing	75.9	47.1	88.2	76.7	100.0	17	1	0.0
21	IvanOnTech	75.3	87.5	62.5	51.5	100.0	16	2	0.5
22	8932423869	75.2	54.5	80.0	74.4	100.0	11	1	0.0
23	BitcoinWorldN	75.2	84.6	58.3	61.8	100.0	13	2	0.0
24	memecoinkartel	75.1	54.1	97.3	48.6	100.0	37	14	0.0
25	LeopoldATracker	73.3	55.6	88.9	50.0	100.0	18	3	0.0
26	btcdaheng	72.7	93.3	40.0	63.4	100.0	15	7	0.143
27	6252618943	72.1	64.9	100.0	58.9	54.1	37	3	0.0
28	ElliottwaveForecast	71.9	75.0	66.7	46.7	100.0	24	—
29	Route2FI	70.9	70.0	70.0	44.4	100.0	20	9	0.111
30	BinaryLogic	70.7	41.9	96.7	45.6	100.0	31	1	0.0
31	defi_mochi	69.4	56.3	75.0	50.0	100.0	16	7	-0.143
32	2530927005	68.8	33.3	100.0	85.9	58.3	12	—
33	_Investinq	68.5	84.6	38.5	58.1	100.0	13	—
34	BitcoinMagazine	67.7	23.3	89.7	68.8	100.0	30	16	0.0
35	MarketScientist	67.3	44.8	82.8	45.3	100.0	29	—
36	holdingbags	66.5	7.7	100.0	71.1	100.0	13	—
37	7047445361	66.1	58.8	93.8	60.5	41.2	17	—
38	Web3FRZ	65.0	41.7	66.7	62.5	100.0	12	—
39	DefiWimar	64.9	100.0	3.8	69.0	100.0	27	—
40	2697886986	64.3	67.7	54.8	38.0	100.0	31	—

避坑分=0.30×高把握+0.30×看多+0.20×模糊+0.20×无期限(启发式v1,权重公开)。另有5个账号经Wilson 95%确证正超额(单段)。Verdict·只陈述可独立验证的事实。